Plumbing Employment Through Two Recessions: Why the Trade Fell Less and Recovered Six Years Sooner

Thirty-six years, two downturns

The BLS Current Employment Statistics series for plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors runs from 1990, which covers the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic in full. Setting it against total construction employment over the same period shows that the trade behaves differently in a downturn, and the difference is large enough to matter.

It falls less, and it comes back sooner.

Key years

Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics, series CEU2023822001 and CEU2000000001, annual averages of complete years. Share calculated by The Plumbing Brief. The full 1990 to 2025 series is in the CSV.

The evidence

1. NAICS 238220 employment, 1990: 580,700. 2025: 1,317,200, a rise of 126.8 percent. Source: BLS series CEU2023822001.
2. All construction, 1990: 5,263,400. 2025: 8,266,700, a rise of 57.1 percent. Source: BLS series CEU2000000001.
3. 238220 pre-crisis peak: 1,003,300 in 2007. Source: BLS series CEU2023822001.
4. 238220 crisis trough: 798,400 in 2010, a fall of 20.4 percent. Source: calculated from BLS CES.
5. All construction peak: 7,691,200 in 2006. Trough: 5,518,300 in 2010, a fall of 28.3 percent. Source: calculated from BLS CES.
6. 238220 regained its pre-crisis peak in 2016, nine years after it was set. Source: BLS series CEU2023822001.
7. All construction regained its pre-crisis peak in 2022, sixteen years after it was set. Source: BLS series CEU2000000001.
8. Pandemic year 2020: 238220 fell 1.8 percent, all construction fell 3.2 percent. Source: calculated from BLS CES.
9. Series low for 238220: 537,200 in 1992. Source: BLS series CEU2023822001.
10. Series high for 238220: 1,317,200 in 2025, the most recent complete year. Source: BLS series CEU2023822001.
11. 238220 share of construction employment: 11.03 percent in 1990, 15.93 percent in 2025. Source: calculated from BLS CES.
12. That share rose during the crisis, from 13.15 percent in 2007 to 14.47 percent in 2010. Source: calculated from BLS CES.

What we calculated

The trade fell 7.9 points less than construction overall

Formula. Peak-to-trough percentage decline for each series, using each series’ own peak year.

Calculation. 238220 fell from 1,003,300 in 2007 to 798,400 in 2010, minus 20.4 percent. All construction fell from 7,691,200 in 2006 to 5,518,300 in 2010, minus 28.3 percent. The difference is 7.9 percentage points.

Finding. Plumbing and HVAC contracting lost roughly three quarters as much employment as construction overall in the financial crisis. The likely reason is the repair and replacement share of the work: a plumbing contractor’s revenue does not depend entirely on new construction starts, and failed water heaters and burst pipes do not wait for a recovery.

Limitations. This is an observation about two employment series, not a test of the repair-share explanation, which this data cannot evaluate. The two series also peak in different years, which is itself part of the finding but makes the comparison inexact.

The recovery gap is six years

Formula. First year in which each series exceeded its own pre-crisis peak.

Calculation. 238220 exceeded its 2007 peak in 2016, a nine-year round trip. All construction exceeded its 2006 peak in 2022, a sixteen-year round trip.

Finding. The trade recovered its pre-crisis employment level six years before construction as a whole did. That gap is larger than the difference in the depth of the fall, which means the trade also recovered faster, not merely from a shallower hole.

Limitations. Nominal employment recovery ignores population and workforce growth. Both series regained their raw peak later than they regained it on a per-capita basis, and neither is adjusted here.

The trade gains share precisely when construction shrinks

Formula. 238220 as a percentage of total construction employment, tracked through each downturn.

Calculation. The share rose from 13.15 percent in 2007 to 14.47 percent in 2010, and from 15.23 percent in 2019 to 15.45 percent in 2020. Over the full period it rose from 11.03 percent to 15.93 percent.

Finding. The share increased in both downturns. Because the trade shrinks less than the sector it sits inside, recessions mechanically raise its share, and that share has never given the gains back in a recovery. The long rise from 11.03 to 15.93 percent is therefore partly a recession ratchet rather than only secular growth.

Limitations. A rising share during a contraction is arithmetic, not evidence of strength on its own. NAICS 238220 also combines plumbing with heating and air conditioning, and HVAC demand has its own drivers including cooling demand and equipment efficiency rules.

Download the data

The full 1990 to 2025 annual series for both measures plus the calculated share, published as a CSV under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Attribution: The Plumbing Brief.

Plumbing and HVAC employment against all construction, 1990 to 2025 (CSV)

How this report was built

Methodology

Source. BLS Current Employment Statistics series CEU2023822001 (plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors, NAICS 238220) and CEU2000000001 (construction supersector), retrieved through the BLS public API on 3 October 2026. Anyone tracking plumbing’s steadier payrolls may also want to compare them against construction turnover and job openings data across the broader industry. Those curious how plumbing’s steadier payrolls map onto the firms themselves can check twenty-five years of business counts, jobs and pay across residential and commercial plumbing contractors in business and employment trends for plumbing firms.

Annual figures. Mean of twelve published monthly values. Years with fewer than twelve months are excluded. Both series begin in 1990 in this retrieval.

Peak and trough selection. Each series’ own pre-crisis peak was identified from the data rather than assumed, which is why they differ: 2007 for the trade and 2006 for construction overall. Troughs were taken as the minimum between 2008 and 2013.

Recovery year. The first year after the trough in which the annual average exceeded the pre-crisis peak.

Derived figures. Peak-to-trough declines, recovery years and the share series are calculated by this publication.

Retrieval date. 3 October 2026.

Data limitations

• NAICS 238220 combines plumbing with heating and air conditioning. No federal series separates them, so part of this behaviour is HVAC rather than plumbing.
• CES counts payroll jobs, not people. A worker with two jobs is counted twice and self-employed plumbers are excluded entirely, which is material in a trade with many sole proprietors and may be where some crisis-period work went.
• Employment recovery is measured in raw headcount and is not adjusted for population or workforce growth. On a per-capita basis both recoveries came later.
• Annual averages smooth within-year movement, which is substantial in a seasonal sector.
• The repair-and-replacement explanation for the shallower decline is plausible and untested. This data contains no revenue or work-type split.
• The series begins in 1990 and does not cover the early 1980s downturn.
• BLS revises CES data. Figures reflect values published as of the retrieval date.

Source quality ranking

Tier 1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, series CEU2023822001 and CEU2000000001.

Tier 2. None used. Tier 3. None used.

Excluded. Industry association employment estimates that do not publish a method, and any employment figure that does not state whether self-employed workers are included.

If you quote one number

• Plumbing and HVAC employment fell 20.4 percent in the financial crisis. All construction fell 28.3 percent.
• The trade regained its pre-crisis peak in 2016. Construction overall waited until 2022.
• In the pandemic year the trade fell 1.8 percent against 3.2 percent for construction.
• The trade has grown 126.8 percent since 1990 against 57.1 percent for construction.
• Its share of construction employment rose in both recessions and never gave the gains back.

Summary for reporters

Plumbing and HVAC contractor employment fell 20.4 percent from its 2007 peak of 1,003,300 to its 2010 trough of 798,400, while total US construction employment fell 28.3 percent from a 2006 peak of 7,691,200 to the same 2010 trough, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics. The trade regained its pre-crisis peak in 2016, nine years after setting it; construction as a whole did not regain its own peak until 2022, sixteen years after. The same pattern held in the pandemic year, when the trade fell 1.8 percent against 3.2 percent for construction. Over the full 1990 to 2025 period the trade grew 126.8 percent against 57.1 percent for construction, and its share of construction employment rose from 11.03 to 15.93 percent, increasing during both downturns and never reversing in recovery. The series excludes self-employed plumbers.

Angles this supports

1. Plumbing recovered from the financial crisis six years before construction did
2. The trade fell a quarter less than the sector it sits inside
3. Plumbing and HVAC now account for one in six construction jobs, up from one in nine
4. Recessions ratchet the trade’s share up and it never comes back down
5. Thirty-six years of plumbing employment through two downturns

Questions this answers

How did plumbing employment do in the 2008 recession? It fell 20.4 percent from a 2007 peak of 1,003,300 to a 2010 trough of 798,400, against 28.3 percent for construction overall.

When did plumbing employment recover? It exceeded its pre-crisis peak in 2016. Construction overall did not until 2022.

Is plumbing recession-proof? No. It lost more than 200,000 payroll jobs in the financial crisis. It is recession-resistant relative to construction, falling about three quarters as much and recovering six years sooner.

Why does plumbing fall less in a recession? The most plausible reason is that repair and replacement work does not stop when construction starts do. This data cannot test that, because it holds no work-type split.

What happened in 2020? The trade fell 1.8 percent and construction overall fell 3.2 percent, the same relationship in a much shallower downturn.

How much has plumbing employment grown? 126.8 percent between 1990 and 2025, from 580,700 to 1,317,200, against 57.1 percent for construction.

What share of construction is plumbing? 15.93 percent in 2025, up from 11.03 percent in 1990, close to one in six construction jobs.

Does the share rise in recessions? Yes, mechanically, because the trade shrinks less than the sector. It rose from 13.15 percent in 2007 to 14.47 in 2010 and has never reversed in a recovery.

Does this include self-employed plumbers? No. CES counts payroll jobs only, which excludes sole proprietors entirely. That matters here because some crisis-period work may have shifted to self-employment, which this series would record as a loss.

Does this separate plumbing from HVAC? No. NAICS 238220 combines them and no federal series splits them.

How to cite this report

The Plumbing Brief, “Plumbing Employment Through Two Recessions: Why the Trade Fell Less and Recovered Six Years Sooner”, https://theplumbingbrief.com/plumbing-employment-through-recessions/, accessed [date].

Last reviewed: 2026-10-03.