Plumber Shortage Statistics: The Numbers, Tracked

The core plumber shortage statistics come down to four measurable gaps: a projected shortfall of about 550,000 plumbers by 2027 (John Dunham and Associates via LIXIL, 2026), a workforce where more than 20 percent are over age 55 (Consumer Affairs), an apprenticeship pipeline filling only a fraction of openings (JLL, 2026), and about 44,000 openings a year through 2034 (BLS). This page is the data companion to our full analysis of the plumber shortage.

The shortage numbers at a glance

Five figures carry the story: the projected shortfall, the share of the workforce near retirement, the replacement ratio, annual job openings, and the estimated economic cost. The table is the short version, with fuller sourcing and caveats in the sections that follow. Read the shortfall row as an industry projection, not a government count, and note that sources quote either 2026 or 2027 for the same research.

Projected shortfall: the headline number and its caveats

The projected plumber shortfall is about 550,000 workers, a figure from research by John Dunham and Associates that is carried in LIXIL-backed studies released in 2026. The number is quoted widely, but the target year is not consistent: some write-ups say 2026 and others say 2027 for the same underlying research. We report both because we cannot reconcile them to a single primary date.

The dollar cost has the same problem. The most traceable figure is roughly $33 billion, tied to the 2022 shortage, from the same body of work. Some 2026 roundups instead cite “over $38 billion annually,” which we could not pin to a dated primary table, so we show it as a separate, less-verified claim rather than folding it into the $33 billion figure.

Retirements and the aging workforce

The plumber shortage is powered by demographics. More than 20 percent of plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters are over age 55 (Consumer Affairs), and some sources put the share nearer 23 to 25 percent. Separately, about one-third of skilled trade professionals are projected to retire over the next 10 years (PeopleReady), which is the pool the trade has to replace just to stand still.

The replacement math is the problem. JLL, citing US Department of Education estimates, reports that for every five workers who retire from construction, manufacturing, and skilled trades, only two enter the workforce. Plumbing-specific write-ups often shorthand this as roughly three retiring for every one joining. Both describe the same gap, and neither is a plumber-only government census, so we flag them as reported estimates.

The last two rows are trade-wide, not plumbing-only. We include them for context because plumbing sits inside the same labor pool, but a plumber-specific average age is not published by a government source, so we do not assert one.

The apprenticeship pipeline

The pipeline is the supply side of the plumber shortage statistics, and it is not keeping pace. Across the major skilled trades, roughly 600,000 jobs were posted in the most recent year while only about 150,000 new workers entered through apprenticeship programs (JLL, 2026). That is close to a four-to-one gap between demand and the formal training pipeline that feeds it.

The trend line has been weak. One widely repeated figure holds that the apprenticeship rate for young people entering skilled trades fell 49 percent in 2022 versus 2020, which we mark as reported because we could not trace it to a dated primary release. On the policy side, the US Department of Labor announced a $145 million investment in apprenticeship programs in January 2026, a concrete counter-move even if its effect will take years to show up in the workforce. For the individual path into the trade, see how to become a plumber.

Job openings and demand outlook

On the demand side, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 4 percent employment growth for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters from 2024 to 2034, about as fast as the average job, and roughly 44,000 openings per year over the decade. Most of those openings come from replacement, meaning workers retiring or leaving the trade, not brand-new positions.

This is the number people misread as evidence there is no shortage. BLS measures jobs expected to exist and be filled; it does not measure unmet demand for plumbing work. The shortage projections measure the gap between the work available and the workers to do it, which is why a modest 4 percent growth rate and a 550,000-worker shortfall can both be true. A large share of job growth is driven by aging pipe systems and construction, and when supply lags, prices move, which we track in what plumbers charge per hour.

The wider skilled-trades context

Plumbing does not have a labor problem on its own. It sits inside a broader skilled-trades shortage, and the trade-wide numbers help size the pressure. JLL’s April 2026 research estimates as many as 2.1 million skilled trades positions could go unfilled by 2030, with the US Department of Education flagging potential economic losses reaching $1 trillion a year.

One caution on that 2.1 million figure: JLL applies it to skilled trades, but a separately famous “2.1 million by 2030” number from Deloitte refers to unfilled manufacturing jobs. They are different studies about different sectors that happen to share a round number, so do not treat them as the same finding. The construction-specific figures below round out the context.

For the market size, business count, and pay figures that sit alongside these labor numbers, see the wider plumbing industry statistics.

Methodology and sourcing note

The Plumbing Brief takes no vendor money and cites every figure to a named source with a year. This tracker separates two kinds of number, because they get mixed together everywhere else. Government hard counts, chiefly the BLS growth and openings projections, describe jobs that exist. Industry-commissioned projections, chiefly the 550,000 shortfall (John Dunham and Associates) and the JLL pipeline gap, describe unmet demand and are estimates, not censuses. We label which is which in every table.

Three rules keep this page honest. First, when sources disagree, such as the 2026-versus-2027 shortfall date or the $33 billion-versus-$38 billion cost, we publish both rather than pick the friendliest. Second, when a figure is trade-wide rather than plumbing-specific, such as the retiree-to-entrant ratio or the average worker age, we say so instead of letting it read as a plumber-only stat. Third, if we cannot trace a figure to a dated primary source, we mark it as reported. This page is a living reference, updated as new BLS releases and industry studies land. Last reviewed: August 2026.

Frequently asked questions

How many plumbers is the US short?

The most-cited figure is a projected shortfall of about 550,000 plumbers, attributed to John Dunham and Associates and carried in LIXIL-backed studies. Sources disagree on the target year, quoting either 2026 or 2027 for the same underlying research. It is an industry-commissioned projection, not a government count, so treat it as a directional estimate.

What percentage of plumbers are over 55?

More than 20 percent of plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters are over age 55, a figure attributed to Consumer Affairs and repeated across industry roundups. Some sources put the share nearer 23 to 25 percent. The trade is aging faster than new workers replace it, which is the core driver behind every shortage projection.

How many plumbers retire versus how many join?

JLL, citing US Department of Education estimates, reports that for every five workers who retire from construction, manufacturing, and skilled trades, only two replacements enter the workforce. Applied to plumbing specifically, industry write-ups often shorthand this as roughly three retiring for every one entering. Both describe the same replacement gap.

How many plumbing job openings are there each year?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects about 44,000 openings per year for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters over the 2024 to 2034 decade, alongside 4 percent employment growth. Most of those openings come from workers retiring or leaving the trade rather than newly created positions, which is why demand outruns the pipeline.

Is the plumber shortage getting worse?

By the leading industry estimates, yes. The projected shortfall sits near 550,000, apprenticeship entries lag posted job openings by roughly four to one across the skilled trades (JLL, 2026), and more than 20 percent of the current workforce is nearing retirement. Government employment growth is modest at 4 percent, so the gap is driven by supply, not demand.

Last reviewed: August 2026.